Evidence Explorer
Every series behind the thesis
The core metrics, grouped by the hypothesis they serve. Each chart states its metric, period, unit, source and as-of date. Licensed series are not shown in the public build.
H1 · Price turn
Nominal GDP, single quarter, current prices
国内生产总值（当季，现价） · CNY 100m · H1, H2
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- Target variable. With real GDP it gives nominal growth and the implied deflator.
- source code
- nbs:28d936104e304aa191e338eb82b6dc09/d22612f09aeb4241bc557ef0ac61b3ba
- retrieved
- 4 Oct 2026, 05:22 UTC
Real GDP YoY, single quarter
国内生产总值不变价当季同比 · % · H1, H2
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- Denominator of the implied deflator; real side of nominal growth.
- source code
- nbs:f9b694c9b79e4ce5958bc88c6410fa67/170e7f00f8c24ede863c0526b42ae81f@idx100
- retrieved
- 4 Oct 2026, 05:22 UTC
PPI YoY
工业生产者出厂价格指数同比 · % · H1, H0
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- Monthly proxy for the industrial deflator; the main high-frequency price signal.
- source code
- nbs:60e8b361f11c4a878c652a6487a25561/150633e52b9a470a9a9fd1b296dd6c5b@idx100
- retrieved
- 4 Oct 2026, 05:22 UTC
PPI MoM
工业生产者出厂价格指数环比 · % · H1, H0
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- Momentum free of base effects; distinguishes a real turn from a base-effect turn.
- source code
- nbs:677cfbb4f06941af8c1761c4804e58cf/e64079bae9064aebad1c4c5fe0c8a6ef@idx100
- retrieved
- 4 Oct 2026, 05:22 UTC
CPI YoY
居民消费价格指数同比 · % · H1
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- Consumer-side price level; part of the GDP deflator.
- source code
- nbs:5c7452825c7c4dcba391db5ca7f335c5/53180dfb9c14411ba4b762307c85920c@idx100|nbs:809d2522b0fe4be89142650341b19083/4ae9047687934a6390984c21d6ddab96@idx100|nbs:9d4eec43537742a7ab5d63db97fa2f51/e5c318ffdbbc4d38898e52b52267eb25@idx100
- retrieved
- 4 Oct 2026, 05:22 UTC
Manufacturing PMI, output prices
制造业PMI出厂价格指数 · index (50 = no change) · H1
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- Leads PPI MoM by roughly one release; earliest price read each month.
- source code
- nbs:93ffbb1aa85740d3aa2618371508b606/105a73cd48cc47d4a914ebccdedf24ec
- retrieved
- 4 Oct 2026, 05:32 UTC
Industrial enterprise profits, YTD YoY
规模以上工业企业利润总额累计同比 · % · H1, H2
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- Where price and volume meet margins; tests whether reflation reaches corporate income.
- source code
- nbs:643feccdedb64e38a64c65a00c390646/9d63a27d727d4beeb32529078442cdd4
- retrieved
- 4 Oct 2026, 05:26 UTC
China 10-year government bond yield, month-end
10年期国债到期收益率 · % · H1, H2, H3
No public observations yet.
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- Market-implied view of nominal growth; benchmark our thesis against the bond market.
H2 · Domestic demand
Core CPI YoY (ex food and energy)
扣除食品和能源价格后的核心CPI同比 · % · H2, H0
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- Demand-driven price pressure; key discriminator between H2 (demand recovery) and H0 (supply-only).
- source code
- nbs:5c7452825c7c4dcba391db5ca7f335c5/71be3d43d2fb44188199840272463ae0@idx100|nbs:809d2522b0fe4be89142650341b19083/c2050e97c49a4763a6d0f0f38bf0b4ed@idx100
- retrieved
- 4 Oct 2026, 05:23 UTC
M1 YoY
M1同比 · % · H2
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- Corporate and household transaction balances; a leading read on private activity.
- source code
- nbs:82130c6621a745cda3d64b090e733383/640401d3351b4b868dea28f89f410a54
- retrieved
- 4 Oct 2026, 05:32 UTC
New RMB loans to households, medium and long term, year-to-date
住户中长期贷款新增（年初至今） · CNY 100m · H2
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- Mortgage demand; the cleanest private-credit read on households. Use single() for monthly flow.
- retrieved
- 4 Oct 2026, 05:10 UTC
Retail sales of consumer goods YoY
社会消费品零售总额当月同比 · % · H2
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- Nominal household consumption.
- source code
- nbs:d0cb882c7f27443ab6b3ef9421901961/aaac57d54d2e465d91bc9f3ea1a8618e
- retrieved
- 4 Oct 2026, 05:23 UTC
Commodity building sales area, YTD YoY
商品房销售面积累计同比 · % · H2
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- Property demand; the largest single drag on private demand since 2021.
- source code
- nbs:0ae633cdb85f4a8397650831b2b27e50/50a37fbef1d04be68f15d82b711783bf
- retrieved
- 4 Oct 2026, 05:23 UTC
Manufacturing PMI, new orders
制造业PMI新订单指数 · index (50 = no change) · H2
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- Earliest monthly demand read.
- source code
- nbs:93ffbb1aa85740d3aa2618371508b606/4151df33b53f4d02ae9f51fe402f1a50
- retrieved
- 4 Oct 2026, 05:32 UTC
New RMB loans to non-financial corporates, medium and long term, YTD diagnostic
企（事）业单位中长期贷款新增（年初至今） · CNY 100m · H2, H3
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- Pull when TSF moves; separates capex credit demand from government bond issuance.
- retrieved
- 4 Oct 2026, 05:10 UTC
Government fund budget revenue, YTD YoY diagnostic
政府性基金预算收入累计同比 · % · H2, H3
No public observations yet.
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- Pull when fiscal or property signals conflict; land sales link property weakness to local fiscal capacity.
H3 · Policy impulse
Total social financing stock YoY
社会融资规模存量同比 · % · H3, H2
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- Aggregate credit growth across loans, bonds and government debt.
- retrieved
- 4 Oct 2026, 05:10 UTC
TSF, government bond net financing (monthly flow)
社融口径政府债券净融资（当月） · CNY 100m · H3
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- Fiscal credit impulse; separates government-led from private credit growth.
- retrieved
- 4 Oct 2026, 05:10 UTC
General public budget expenditure, YTD YoY
一般公共预算支出累计同比 · % · H3
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- Spending side of fiscal impulse.
- source code
- nbs:37564a0046c14c059382e3ad26a0d94f/8dc84fd764df46a294e54a7662b1a38a
- retrieved
- 9 Oct 2026, 10:36 UTC
CNY per USD, monthly average
美元兑人民币汇率（月均） · CNY per USD · H3
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- Fed/USD -> CNY channel; constraint on PBOC easing room.
- source code
- EXCHUS
- retrieved
- 4 Oct 2026, 04:49 UTC
US 10-year Treasury yield, monthly average
美国10年期国债收益率（月均） · % · H3
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- US rate level; with CGB 10Y gives the China-US spread that binds PBOC policy.
- source code
- GS10
- retrieved
- 4 Oct 2026, 04:49 UTC
H4 · External demand
Exports in USD, YoY
出口金额（美元计）当月同比 · % · H4
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- External demand contribution to nominal growth.
- source code
- nbs:7e11b47c828d4e4e925f1c5a98305558/788f44b0f310403fbd308b77d6f83890
- retrieved
- 4 Oct 2026, 05:32 UTC
Manufacturing PMI, new export orders
制造业PMI新出口订单指数 · index (50 = no change) · H4
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- Leading read on export momentum.
- source code
- nbs:93ffbb1aa85740d3aa2618371508b606/fb245388740743d0974af1b00cfd27bb
- retrieved
- 4 Oct 2026, 05:32 UTC
Exports to the United States in USD, YTD YoY diagnostic
对美出口（美元计）累计同比 · % · H4
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- Pull when exports move; isolates tariff-exposed demand from rerouting to other markets.
- retrieved
- 4 Oct 2026, 05:48 UTC
H0 · Supply-led bounce (competing)
Brent crude, monthly average
布伦特原油价格（月均，美元/桶） · USD/bbl · H0, H1
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- Imported cost-push into PPI; a supply-side price driver (H0).
- source code
- POILBREUSDM
- retrieved
- 4 Oct 2026, 04:49 UTC
Copper, monthly average
铜价（月均，美元/吨） · USD/metric ton · H0, H1
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- Global industrial-metals price driver of upstream PPI.
- source code
- PCOPPUSDM
- retrieved
- 4 Oct 2026, 04:49 UTC
PPI, producer goods YoY diagnostic
PPI生产资料同比 · % · H0, H1
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- Pull when PPI moves; upstream-led moves point to supply or commodity drivers (H0).
- source code
- nbs:60e8b361f11c4a878c652a6487a25561/47f8464961184392bc4f6a4b8e5b1cb5@idx100
- retrieved
- 4 Oct 2026, 05:24 UTC
PPI, consumer goods YoY diagnostic
PPI生活资料同比 · % · H0, H2
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- Pull when PPI moves; downstream pass-through suggests demand (H2) rather than supply.
- source code
- nbs:60e8b361f11c4a878c652a6487a25561/649b27dbffb14466a3f204e16f3c74ed@idx100
- retrieved
- 4 Oct 2026, 05:24 UTC
Industrial value added, real YoY diagnostic
规模以上工业增加值当月同比 · % · H0, H2
Technical lineage
- Why it is here
- Pull when prices rise; rising prices with falling output fits supply discipline (H0).
- source code
- nbs:3f2e14f0542348ed9fe02476eca3450b/ef1b1765960d45a29b4d7c4ca91be916
- retrieved
- 4 Oct 2026, 05:25 UTC